The impacts of decarbonization pathways on Sustainable Development Goals in the European Union

DATE: March 16th, 2024
AUTHORS: Jorge Moreno et al.
JOURNAL: communications earth & environment
TITLE: The impacts of decarbonization pathways on Sustainable Development Goals in the European Union
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

Climate action to achieve the Paris Agreement should respect the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Here, we use an integrated assessment modelling framework comprising nine climate policy models and quantify the impacts of decarbonisation pathways on Sustainable Development Goals in the European Union at regional and national levels. We show that scenario-consistent assumptions of future socio-economic trends and current climate policies would improve energy- and carbon-related aspects of sustainability and reduce inequalities. Ambitious net-zero emissions pathways would further improve health and agricultural productivity. Furthermore, countries currently lagging in achieving sustainable development goals would see the greatest benefits from ambitious climate action. Negative socio-economic impacts from climate action on poverty, hunger, and economic growth will require specific corrective policies. While our analysis does not quantify the negative effects of less ambitious climate policy, it demonstrates where co-benefits and trade-offs of greenhouse gas mitigation and sustainable development agenda exist and can guide policy formulation.

JOURNAL LINK: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01309-7
ZENODO LINK: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10072817
SYNERGIES: PARIS REINFORCE
Moreno, J., Campagnolo, L., Boitier, B., Nikas, A., Koasidis, K., Gambhir, A., ... & Vielle, M. (2024). The impacts of decarbonization pathways on Sustainable Development Goals in the European Union. Communications Earth & Environment, 5(1), 136.

Advancing participatory energy systems modelling

DATE: February 2nd, 2024
AUTHORS: Connor McGookin | Diana Süsser | Georgios Xexakis | Evelina Trutnevyte | Will McDowall | Alexandros Nikas | Konstantinos Koasidis | Sheridan Few | Per Dannemand Andersen | Christina Demski | Patrícia Fortes | Sofia G. Simoes | Christopher Bishop | Fionn Rogan | Brian Ó Gallachóir
JOURNAL: Energy Strategy Reviews
TITLE: Advancing participatory energy systems modelling
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

Energy system models are important tools to guide our understanding of current and future carbon dioxide emissions as well as to inform strategies for emissions reduction. These models offer a vital evidence base that increasingly underpins energy and climate policies in many countries. In light of this important role in policy formation, there is growing interest in, and demands for, energy modellers to integrate more diverse perspectives on possible and preferred futures into the modelling process. The main purpose of this is to ensure that the resultant policy decisions are both fairer and better reflect people’s concerns and preferences. However, while there has been a focus in the literature on efforts to bring societal dimensions into modelling tools, there remains a limited number of examples of well-structured participatory energy systems modelling processes and no available how-to guidance. This paper addresses this gap by providing good practice guidance for integrating stakeholder and public involvement in energy systems modelling based on the reflections of a diverse range of experts from this emergent field. The framework outlined in this paper offers multiple entry points for modellers to incorporate participatory elements either throughout the process or in individual stages. Recognising the messiness of both fields (energy systems modelling and participatory research), the good practice principles are not comprehensive or set in stone, but rather pose important questions to steer this process. Finally, the reflections on key issues provide a summary of the crucial challenges and important areas for future research in this critical field.

JOURNAL LINK: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2024.101319
ZENODO LINK: https://zenodo.org/records/10610295
SYNERGIES:
McGookin, C., Süsser, D., Xexakis, G., Trutnevyte, E., McDowall, W., Nikas, A., Koasidis, K., & Ó Gallachóir, B. (2024). Advancing participatory energy systems modelling. Energy Strategy Reviews, 52, 101319

Three different directions in which the European Union could replace Russian natural gas

DATE: January 6th, 2024
AUTHORS: Alexandros Nikas et al.
JOURNAL: Energy
TITLE: Three different directions in which the European Union could replace Russian natural gas
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fuelled an energy crisis, which considerably impacted Europe given its heavy reliance on Russian natural gas imports. This study uses an ensemble of four global integrated assessment models, which are further soft-linked to two sectoral models, and explores the synergies and trade-offs among three approaches to living without Russian gas in Europe: (a) replacing with other gas imports, (b) boosting domestic energy production, and (c) reducing demand and accelerating energy efficiency. We find that substituting Russian gas from other trade partners would miss an opportunity to accelerate decarbonisation in end-use sectors while risking further fossil-fuel lock-ins, despite featuring the lowest gas price spikes and potentially reducing heating costs for end-users in the near term. Boosting domestic, primarily renewable, energy production on the other hand would instead require considerable investments, potentially burdening consumers. Energy demand reductions, however, could offer considerable space for further emissions cuts at the lowest power-sector investment costs; nonetheless, an energy efficiency-driven strategy would also risk relocation of energy-intensive industries, an aspect of increasing relevance to EU policymakers.

JOURNAL LINK: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2024.130254
ZENODO LINK:
SYNERGIES: IAM COMPACT
Nikas, A., Frilingou, N., Heussaff, C., Fragkos, P., Mittal, S., Sampedro, J., ... & Van de Ven, D. J. (2024). Three different directions in which the European Union could replace Russian natural gas. Energy, 130254.

A multi-model analysis of the EU’s path to net zero

DATE: November 23rd, 2023
AUTHORS: Baptiste Boitier | Alexandros Nikas | Ajay Gambhir | Konstantinos Koasidis | Alessia Elia | Khaled Al-Dabbas | Şirin Alibaş | Lorenza Campagnolo | Alessandro Chiodi | Elisa Delpiazzo | Haris Doukas | Arnaud Fougeyrollas | Maurizio Gargiulo | Pierre Le Mouël | Felix Neuner | Sigit Perdana | Dirk-Jan van de Ven | Marc Vielle | Paul Zagamé | Shivika Mittal
JOURNAL: Joule
TITLE: A multi-model analysis of the EU’s path to net zero
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

The European Union (EU) recently ratcheted its climate ambition to net-zero emissions by 2050, with a milestone of 55% emissions cuts in 2030. This study carries out a model inter-comparison to assess the EU’s path, from “Fit for 55” in 2030 to an intermediate milestone in 2040 and onto net zero in 2050, offering insights at sectoral and member-state levels. Our model results support the bloc’s ambition for its Emissions Trading System and Effort Sharing Regulation sectors while pointing to the need for near-complete decarbonization of electricity by 2040, enabled by considerable deployment of renewables (45%–65% in 2030, to 60%–70% in 2040, and to 75%–90% in 2050 in electricity generation) and carbon capture and storage (0.5–2 GtCO₂/year by 2050). We also highlight the trade-offs between supply-side and harder-to-abate sectors, assess the ambition of member states for net zero and timing of coal phaseout, and reflect on the economic implications of investment, technical, and policy needs.

JOURNAL LINK: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2023.11.002
ZENODO LINK: https://zenodo.org/records/10213459
SYNERGIES: PARIS REINFORCE
Boitier, B., Nikas, A., Gambhir, A., Koasidis, K., Elia, A., Al-Dabbas, K., ... & Mittal, S. (2023). A multi-model analysis of the EU’s path to net zero. Joule, 7.

The EU carbon border adjustment mechanism: implications on Brazilian energy intensive industries

DATE: November 2nd, 2023
AUTHORS: Sigit Perdana | Marc Vielle | Thais Diniz Oliveira
JOURNAL: Climate Policy
TITLE: The EU carbon border adjustment mechanism: implications on Brazilian energy intensive industries
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

As an instrument supporting the realization of EU climate neutrality targets by 2050 and encouraging decarbonization outside its borders, the current proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is facing opposition from some countries. Focusing on Brazil, this paper evaluates the impacts of the CBAM on the Brazilian economy through a comprehensive analysis of various scenarios based on the potential EU implementation of the CBAM and Brazil’s climate scenarios. Results obtained in this research alleviate concerns of detrimental and competitiveness losses from Brazilian industries. Rather, the implementation of the EU CBAM improves the trade balance of Brazil’s Energy-Intensive Industries (EII). The relatively low CO₂ contents of Brazilian EII are elemental to this result, while contributions of carbon-free technologies in electricity generation are also critical factors in maximizing this trade surplus. Other consequential factors affecting these results are the contributions of CO₂ removal from Brazil’s forestry of land used, and homogeneity of CBAM-imposed products.

JOURNAL LINK: https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2023.2277405
ZENODO LINK:
SYNERGIES:
Perdana, S. P., Vielle, M., & Diniz-Oliveira, T. (2023). The EU carbon border adjustment mechanism: implications on Brazilian energy intensive industries. Climate Policy

A multicriteria modeling approach for evaluating power generation scenarios under uncertainty: The case of green hydrogen in Greece

DATE: October 10th, 2023
AUTHORS: Diamantis Koutsandreas | Georgios P. Trachanas | Ioannis Pappis | Alexandros Nikas | Haris Doukas | John Psarras
JOURNAL: Energy Strategy Reviews
TITLE: A multicriteria modeling approach for evaluating power generation scenarios under uncertainty: The case of green hydrogen in Greece
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

Clean energy technological innovations are widely acknowledged as a prerequisite to achieving ambitious long-term energy and climate targets. However, the optimal speed of their adoption has been parsimoniously studied in the literature. This study seeks to identify the optimal intensity of moving to a green hydrogen electricity sector in Greece, using the OSeMOSYS energy modeling framework. Green hydrogen policies are evaluated, first, on the basis of their robustness against uncertainty and, afterwards, against conflicting performance criteria and for different decision-making profiles towards risk, by applying the VIKOR and TOPSIS multi-criteria decision aid methods. Although our analysis focuses exclusively on the power sector and compares different rates of hydrogen penetration compared to a business-as-usual case without considering other game-changing innovations (such as other types of storage or carbon capture and storage), we find that a national transition to a green hydrogen economy can support Greece in potentially cutting at least 16 MtCO2 while stimulating investments of EUR 10–13 bn. over 2030–2050.

JOURNAL LINK: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2023.101233
ZENODO LINK:
SYNERGIES: PARIS REINFORCE
Koutsandreas, D., Trachanas, G., Pappis, I., Nikas, A., Doukas, H., & Psarras, J. (2023). A multicriteria modeling approach for evaluating power generation scenario s under uncertainty: the case of green hydrogen in Greece. Energy Strategy Reviews, 50

Co-creating Canada’s path to net-zero: a stakeholder-driven modelling analysis

DATE: August 1st, 2023
AUTHORS: Alison Bailie | Marie Pied | Kathleen Vaillancourt | Olivier Bahn | Konstantinos Koasidis | Ajay Gambhir | Jakob Wachsmuth | Philine Warnke | Ben McWilliams | Haris Doukas | Alexandros Nikas
JOURNAL: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition
TITLE: Co-creating Canada's path to net-zero: a stakeholder-driven modelling analysis
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

Canada has pledged ambitious emission targets, aiming to achieve a reduction of at least 40–45% below 2005 levels by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050. Being amongst the major economies with high dependence on fossil fuels, however, this path is far from straightforward. This research employs NATEM, a TIMES-based regional energy system model for North America with explicit representation of Canada, as well as knowledge produced and shared by stakeholders during a targeted workshop dedicated to identifying decarbonisation bottlenecks, to compare the paths to net zero on the basis of whether stakeholder perceptions are considered or not. We find that the path to net-zero is technically feasible but critically entails the use of negative emissions technologies, like (bioenergy with) carbon capture and storage (CCS) and direct air capture, in addition to the large-scale deployment of a large range of mitigation options already available today. Based on the feedback received from the stakeholders, around both the use of CCS-based technologies and the potential of demand-side measures such as modal shifts in transportation and better urban planning, we impose a set of additional conditions and restrictions. We find that the co-created net-zero pathway is also technically feasible while relying less on technologies that may trigger bottlenecks prioritised by the stakeholders; notably, despite yielding a similar emissions trajectory, it entails significantly different sectoral and technological configurations to the non-co-created net-zero scenario, requiring an acceleration of near-term abatement measures, mainly through electrification and quicker rollout of renewable and other clean energy technologies.

JOURNAL LINK: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667095X2300017X
ZENODO LINK:
SYNERGIES: PARIS REINFORCE
Bailie, A., Pied, M., Vaillancourt, K., Bahn, O., Koasidis, K., Gambhir, A., ... & Nikas, A. (2023). Co-creating Canada's path to net-zero: a stakeholder-driven modelling analysis. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition, 4, 100061.

In-Cognitive: A web-based Python application for fuzzy cognitive map design, simulation, and uncertainty analysis based on the Monte Carlo method

DATE: July 1st, 2023
AUTHORS: Themistoklis Koutsellis | Georgios Xexakis | Konstantinos Koasidis | Natasha Frilingou | Anastasios Karamaneas | Alexandros Nikas | Haris Doukas
JOURNAL: SoftwareX
TITLE: In-Cognitive: A web-based Python application for fuzzy cognitive map design, simulation, and uncertainty analysis based on the Monte Carlo method
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping is a semi-quantitative modelling method, widely used for decision support in various domains. However, existing software applications have been criticised over inadequate handling of uncertain information, lack of accessibility, and inability to converge to solutions for all modelled systems. Here we present In-Cognitive, an open-source, web-based application for the creation, visualisation, and simulation of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, ensuring solution convergence and allowing for Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. The application is built in Python and Bokeh and provides an accessible and user-friendly interface to model various systems quickly and reliably and evaluate the robustness of the modelling solutions.

JOURNAL LINK: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352711023002091
ZENODO LINK:
SYNERGIES: PARIS REINFORCE
Koutsellis, T., Xexakis, G., Koasidis, K., Frilingou, N., Karamaneas, A., Nikas, A., & Doukas, H. (2023). In-Cognitive: A web-based Python application for fuzzy cognitive map design,simulation, and uncertainty analysis based on the Monte Carlo method.Vol

Seven key principles for assessing emerging low-carbon technological opportunities for climate change mitigation action

DATE: July 10th, 2023
AUTHORS: Ajay Gambhir | Alexandros Nikas
JOURNAL: PLOS Climate
TITLE: Seven key principles for assessing emerging low-carbon technological opportunities for climate change mitigation action
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

It is virtually certain that there is going to be a scramble for technological innovation in the coming years, to ensure that society can operate without today’s vast reliance on fossil fuels and their associated CO₂ emissions, nor the emissions of methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O) from agriculture and waste, and other greenhouse gases from human activities. Indeed, it has been estimated that almost half of the technologies making up a net-zero energy system in 2050 are commercially unavailable.

In this technology gold rush, there will inevitably be both successes and failures. Some new technologies will help tackle both climate change and other energy-related or societal challenges (such as energy security and reliance on volatile fossil fuel prices), whereas others—despite their contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions—will risk augmenting existing concerns or even give rise to new societal issues (such as local environmental pollution, or bottlenecks and disruptions to communities affected by extraction of energy transition-critical materials and over-reliance on brittle international mineral supply-chains with the associated geo-political tensions that could result).

Furthermore, technology development will not occur in isolation of broader infrastructures (such as roads and city designs, electric vehicle charging networks, district heating, and cooling networks, or hydrogen pipelines). Still, rather technologies will be central “artefacts” within a system of physical, regulatory, and political innovation systems. The success or failure of such systems will depend on multiple actors (including researchers, businesses, investors, governments, and consumers) and factors (regulation, policy, capital availability, information, social legitimacy for new technologies, etc.) as well as the efficacy of their interactions.

JOURNAL LINK: https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000235
ZENODO LINK:
SYNERGIES: IAM COMPACT
Gambhir A, Nikas A (2023) Seven key principles for assessing emerging low-carbon technological opportunities for climate change mitigation action. PLOS Clim 2(7): e0000235. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000235

Carbon border adjustment mechanism in the transition to net-zero emissions: collective implementation and distributional impacts

DATE: February 18th, 2023
AUTHORS: Sigit Perdana | Marc Vielle
JOURNAL: Environmental Economics and Policy Studies
TITLE: Carbon border adjustment mechanism in the transition to net-zero emissions: collective implementation and distributional impacts
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

As an instrument to minimize carbon leakage, the effects and feasibility of Carbon Border Adjustments Mechanism (CBAM) will depend on multiple design options. While the EU has committed to introducing CBAM as part of its green climate deal, pursuing climate efforts to successfully limit global warming requires a collective implementation involving major emitters China and the US. This paper quantifies the distributional impacts of a joint CBAM implementation of in a climate alliance or a club of the EU, the US, and China. Differing from a myriad of studies that focus on unilateral CBAM, this analysis emphasizes collective implications on leakage, sectoral competitiveness, and welfare by projecting climate neutrality relative to current policies and climate targets. Our findings confirm that coalition reduces leakage, improves production on energy-intensive industries, and increases club’s welfare relative to a non-CBAM and a unilateral implementation. These are in contrast with some unilateral analytical studies, especially for the US. It is further proof of the potential of CBAM as collective instruments to facilitate mitigation and trade competitiveness.

JOURNAL LINK: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10018-023-00361-5
ZENODO LINK: https://zenodo.org/record/7981970
SYNERGIES: PARIS REINFORCE
Perdana, S., & Vielle, M. (2023). Carbon border adjustment mechanism in the transition to net-zero emissions: collective implementation and distributional impacts. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, in press.

Reinforcing the Paris Agreement: Ambitious scenarios for the decarbonisation of the Central Asian and Caspian region

DATE: August 1st, 2023
AUTHORS: Gabriele Cassetti | Alessia Elia | Maurizio Gargiulo | Alessandro Chiodi
JOURNAL: Renewable & Sustainable Energy Transition
TITLE: Reinforcing the Paris Agreement: Ambitious scenarios for the decarbonisation of the Central Asian and Caspian region
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

For its abundant fossil resources, the Central Asia and Caspian region plays a strategic role in the energy security of major markets, such as Europe and China. However, this dependence on export, added to a firm reliance on fossil fuels for internal consumption, represents a significant challenge for the decarbonisation of the region.

In this paper, we perform an energy scenario analysis of four countries in the region (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan), aiming to investigate how ambitious their regional decarbonisation targets for 2050 are in view of the Paris Agreement. We also develop a net-zero emission pathway to reinforce the regional climate ambition in the long term. As a novelty in the literature, the scenario analysis is co-designed with regional stakeholders through an engagement process that we have carried out from December 2020 to May 2021.

The analysis is performed with the TIMES-CAC energy system model. Results show that current regional energy policies are insufficient for achieving ambitious climate targets in the long term (2050 and beyond). The lack of a long-term strategy to decrease the dependence on export increases the influence of importing countries’ energy policies. Even in a decarbonised scenario, the role of China remains significant, while the dependence on the European Union decreases. To limit the pressure from other countries in the energy transition, the region should start implementing a rigorous energy planning process today to fill the “ambition gap” and achieve carbon neutrality in a 40-year horizon.

JOURNAL LINK: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2023.100048
ZENODO LINK: https://zenodo.org/record/7982082
SYNERGIES: PARIS REINFORCE
Cassetti, G., Elia, A., Gargiulo, M., & Chiodi, A. (2023). Reinforcing the Paris Agreement: Ambitious scenarios for the decarbonisation of the Central Asian and Caspian region. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition, 3, 100048.