Bailie, A., Pied, M., Vaillancourt, K., Bahn, O., Koasidis, K., Gambhir, A., … & Nikas, A. (2023). Co-creating Canada’s path to net-zero: a stakeholder-driven modelling analysis. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition, 4, 100061.

DATE: August 1st, 2023
AUTHORS: Alison Bailie | Marie Pied | Kathleen Vaillancourt | Olivier Bahn | Konstantinos Koasidis | Ajay Gambhir | Jakob Wachsmuth | Philine Warnke | Ben McWilliams | Haris Doukas | Alexandros Nikas
JOURNAL: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition
TITLE: Co-creating Canada's path to net-zero: a stakeholder-driven modelling analysis
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

Canada has pledged ambitious emission targets, aiming to achieve a reduction of at least 40–45% below 2005 levels by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050. Being amongst the major economies with high dependence on fossil fuels, however, this path is far from straightforward. This research employs NATEM, a TIMES-based regional energy system model for North America with explicit representation of Canada, as well as knowledge produced and shared by stakeholders during a targeted workshop dedicated to identifying decarbonisation bottlenecks, to compare the paths to net zero on the basis of whether stakeholder perceptions are considered or not. We find that the path to net-zero is technically feasible but critically entails the use of negative emissions technologies, like (bioenergy with) carbon capture and storage (CCS) and direct air capture, in addition to the large-scale deployment of a large range of mitigation options already available today. Based on the feedback received from the stakeholders, around both the use of CCS-based technologies and the potential of demand-side measures such as modal shifts in transportation and better urban planning, we impose a set of additional conditions and restrictions. We find that the co-created net-zero pathway is also technically feasible while relying less on technologies that may trigger bottlenecks prioritised by the stakeholders; notably, despite yielding a similar emissions trajectory, it entails significantly different sectoral and technological configurations to the non-co-created net-zero scenario, requiring an acceleration of near-term abatement measures, mainly through electrification and quicker rollout of renewable and other clean energy technologies.

LINKS: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667095X2300017X
SYNERGIES: PARIS REINFORCE
TAGS: clean energy technologies

Gabriele Cassetti, Alessia Elia, Maurizio Gargiulo, Alessandro Chiodi (2023). Reinforcing the Paris Agreement: Ambitious scenarios for the decarbonisation of the Central Asian and Caspian region. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Transition,3, 100048

DATE: August 1st, 2023
AUTHORS: Gabriele Cassetti | Alessia Elia | Maurizio Gargiulo | Alessandro Chiodi
JOURNAL: Renewable & Sustainable Energy Transition
TITLE: Reinforcing the Paris Agreement: Ambitious scenarios for the decarbonisation of the Central Asian and Caspian region
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

For its abundant fossil resources, the Central Asia and Caspian region plays a strategic role in the energy security of major markets, such as Europe and China. However, this dependence on export, added to a firm reliance on fossil fuels for internal consumption, represents a significant challenge for the decarbonisation of the region. In this paper, we perform an energy scenario analysis of four countries in the region (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan), aiming to investigate how ambitious their regional decarbonisation targets for 2050 are in view of the Paris Agreement. We also develop a net-zero emission pathway to reinforce the regional climate ambition in the long term. As a novelty in the literature, the scenario analysis is co-designed with regional stakeholders through an engagement process that we have carried out from December 2020 to May 2021.The analysis is performed with the TIMES-CAC energy system model. Results show that current regional energy policies are insufficient for achieving ambitious climate targets in the long term (2050 and beyond). The lack of a long-term strategy to decrease the dependence on export increases the influence of importing countries’ energy policies. Even in a decarbonised scenario, the role of China remains significant, while the dependence on the European Union decreases. To limit the pressure from other countries in the energy transition, the region should start implementing a rigorous energy planning process today to fill the “ambition gap” and achieve carbon neutrality in a 40-year horizon.

LINKS: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667095X23000041
SYNERGIES: PARIS REINFORCE
TAGS: net zero emission pathway

Gambhir A, Nikas A (2023) Seven key principles for assessing emerging low-carbon technological opportunities for climate change mitigation action. PLOS Clim 2(7): e0000235. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000235

DATE: July 10th, 2023
AUTHORS: Ajay Gambhir | Alexandros Nikas
JOURNAL: PLOS Climate
TITLE: Seven key principles for assessing emerging low-carbon technological opportunities for climate change mitigation action
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

It is virtually certain that there is going to be a scramble for technological innovation in the coming years, to ensure that society can operate without today’s vast reliance on fossil fuels and their associated CO₂ emissions, nor the emissions of methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O) from agriculture and waste, and other greenhouse gases from human activities. Indeed, it has been estimated that almost half of the technologies making up a net-zero energy system in 2050 are commercially unavailable.

In this technology gold rush, there will inevitably be both successes and failures. Some new technologies will help tackle both climate change and other energy-related or societal challenges (such as energy security and reliance on volatile fossil fuel prices), whereas others—despite their contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions—will risk augmenting existing concerns or even give rise to new societal issues (such as local environmental pollution, or bottlenecks and disruptions to communities affected by extraction of energy transition-critical materials and over-reliance on brittle international mineral supply-chains with the associated geo-political tensions that could result)

Furthermore, technology development will not occur in isolation of broader infrastructures (such as roads and city designs, electric vehicle charging networks, district heating, and cooling networks, or hydrogen pipelines). Still, rather technologies will be central “artefacts” within a system of physical, regulatory, and political innovation systems. The success or failure of such systems will depend on multiple actors (including researchers, businesses, investors, governments, and consumers) and factors (regulation, policy, capital availability, information, social legitimacy for new technologies, etc.) as well as the efficacy of their interactions.

LINKS: https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000235
SYNERGIES: IAM COMPACT
TAGS: climate change mitigation

Koutsellis, T., Xexakis, G., Koasidis, K., Frilingou, N., Karamaneas, A., Nikas, A., & Doukas, H. (2023). In-Cognitive: A web-based Python application for fuzzy cognitive map design, simulation, and uncertainty analysis based on the Monte Carlo method. SoftwareX, 23, 101513.

DATE: July 1st, 2023
AUTHORS: Themistoklis Koutsellis | Georgios Xexakis | Konstantinos Koasidis | Natasha Frilingou | Anastasios Karamaneas | Alexandros Nikas | Haris Doukas
JOURNAL: SoftwareX
TITLE: In-Cognitive: A web-based Python application for fuzzy cognitive map design, simulation, and uncertainty analysis based on the Monte Carlo method
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping is a semi-quantitative modelling method, widely used for decision support in various domains. However, existing software applications have been criticised over inadequate handling of uncertain information, lack of accessibility, and inability to converge to solutions for all modelled systems. Here we present In-Cognitive, an open-source, web-based application for the creation, visualisation, and simulation of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, ensuring solution convergence and allowing for Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. The application is built in Python and Bokeh and provides an accessible and user-friendly interface to model various systems quickly and reliably and evaluate the robustness of the modelling solutions.

LINKS: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352711023002091
SYNERGIES: PARIS REINFORCE
TAGS: Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

Perdana, S. & Vielle, M. (2023). Carbon border adjustment mechanism in the transition to net-zero emissions: collective implementation and distributional impacts. Environmental Economics & Policy Studies, in press.

DATE: February 18th, 2023
AUTHORS: Sigit Perdana | Marc Vielle
JOURNAL: Environmental Economics and Policy Studies
TITLE: Carbon border adjustment mechanism in the transition to net-zero emissions: collective implementation and distributional impacts
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

As an instrument to minimize carbon leakage, the effects and feasibility of Carbon Border Adjustments Mechanism (CBAM) will depend on multiple design options. While the EU has committed to introducing CBAM as part of its green climate deal, pursuing climate efforts to successfully limit global warming requires a collective implementation involving major emitters China and the US. This paper quantifies the distributional impacts of a joint CBAM implementation of in a climate alliance or a club of the EU, the US, and China. Differing from a myriad of studies that focus on unilateral CBAM, this analysis emphasizes collective implications on leakage, sectoral competitiveness, and welfare by projecting climate neutrality relative to current policies and climate targets. Our findings confirm that coalition reduces leakage, improves production on energy-intensive industries, and increases club’s welfare relative to a non-CBAM and a unilateral implementation. These are in contrast with some unilateral analytical studies, especially for the US. It is further proof of the potential of CBAM as collective instruments to facilitate mitigation and trade competitiveness.

LINKS: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10018-023-00361-5
SYNERGIES: PARIS REINFORCE
TAGS: carbon leakage