Frilingou, N., Van de Ven, D. J., Sampedro, J., Torné, A., Trutnevyte, E., Horowitz, R., … & Nikas, A. (2025). Cost-optimal vs. policy-driven scenarios for a decarbonised European energy system (accepted manuscript).

DATE: January 29th, 2026
AUTHORS: Natasha Frilingou et al.
JOURNAL: Environmental Research Letters
TITLE: Cost-optimal vs. policy-driven scenarios for a decarbonised European energy system
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

The European Union’s (EU) climate strategy, anchored in the European Green Deal, the Fit-for-55 package, and updated National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), requires a rapid transformation of the energy system to meet the legally binding target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and a 55% reduction by 2030 relative to 1990 levels. Yet, how national plans align with EU-wide ambition, alongside the implications for investment, infrastructure, and power-system operation, remain insufficiently assessed. We address this gap by linking an EU-specific implementation of a prominent integrated assessment model with Member State-level disaggregation (GCAM-Europe) with a higher-resolution European electricity system model (EXPANSE). This modelling framework captures national heterogeneity, sectoral detail, and spatiotemporal variability in electricity demand, renewable supply, and storage, enabling the assessment of grid investments and infrastructure. We analyse four scenarios representing EU-wide (Fit-for-55) or national (NECP) targets, implemented through explicit policies (POLICY) or cost-optimal carbon caps (COST_OPTIMAL). Results show all scenarios achieve the −55% fossil CO2 reduction by 2030, with the electricity sector driving the largest chunk. Renewable energy nearly doubles, with POLICY scenarios accelerating electrification and heat pump deployment, while COST_OPTIMAL scenarios leaning more on biofuels. Efficiency targets are partially met, with POLICY scenarios distributing savings more evenly across Member States compared to concentrated reductions (COST_OPTIMAL). By 2035, power system transformation diverges strongly: COST_OPTIMAL scenarios expand about 1,250 GW of new capacity, concentrated in few resource-rich regions, while POLICY scenarios reach around 1,750GW with broader spatial distribution, requiring higher investments in renewables and grids. Average wholesale electricity prices are higher and more heterogeneous under POLICY scenarios, reflecting carbon costs, transmission bottlenecks, and reliance on fossil backup. Results highlight trade-offs between economic efficiency and equitable burden-sharing, underscoring the importance of coordinated EU governance, infrastructure planning, and complementary policies to balance cost-effectiveness with political feasibility and social acceptance.

LINKS: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7847096/v1
SYNERGIES: IAM COMPACT
TAGS:

Rouhette, T., Narayan, K., Tebaldi, C., Perkins, O., Haas, O., & Escobar, N. (2026). IAM-FIRE: a Climate Emulator–Based Framework to Project Wildfire Impacts and Risks for Integrated Assessment Models (Preprint).

DATE: January 16th, 2026
AUTHORS: Théo Rouhette et al.
JOURNAL: Research Square
TITLE: IAM-FIRE: a Climate Emulator–Based Framework to Project Wildfire Impacts and Risks for Integrated Assessment Models
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

Most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) underrepresent dynamic feedbacks from climate-driven disturbances such as wildfires, potentially overestimating the permanence of land-based carbon sinks. In particular, representing the impacts of forest fires is becoming increasingly important, as these are expected to intensify in the coming years. We introduce IAM-FIRE (Integrated Assessment Model – Fire Impacts & Risks Emulator), a novel framework that enables the projection of wildfire burned area (BA) and carbon emissions (CE) directly from IAM outputs. IAM-FIRE combines a spatial climate emulator, land-use downscaling, vegetation productivity modelling, and an empirical fire model to generate global annual wildfire impacts for arbitrary socioeconomic and emissions scenarios at 0.5° resolution for the period 2020–2100.

Calibrated against GFEDv5 observations and using inputs from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we report projections BA and CE derived from IAM-FIRE for four scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-6.6 and SSP5-7.6. The model reproduces historical global trends for total BA, including the observed global decline since the early 2000s, and for forest BA. Projected fire trajectories differ strongly among scenarios: total BA range from declines under SSP1-2.6 (−3.36 Mha yr^-1) to increases under SSP3-6.6 (+1.6 Mha yr^-1). Corresponding total CE show a similar divergence ranging from −15 to +10.6 TgC yr^-1. Socioeconomic development exerts a dominant suppressing effect on wildfire impacts while climate change and CO₂-driven increases in vegetation productivity amplify fire risk, particularly under high-emissions pathways.

Compared with CMIP6 fire-enabled Earth System Models, IAM-FIRE exhibits greater sensitivity to radiative forcing and a stronger role for human-driven fire suppression, highlighting substantial structural uncertainties in future fire projections. By providing a computationally efficient and internally consistent approach to represent wildfire impacts within IAMs, IAM-FIRE enables systematic exploration of fire–climate–land feedbacks and supports improved assessments of mitigation permanence and climate risks in future integrated scenarios.

LINKS: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8600968/v1
SYNERGIES: ACCLIMATE
TAGS:

Sampedro, J., Van de Ven, D. J., Horowitz, R., Rodés-Bachs, C., Román, M. V., Tomás, M., … & Arto, I. (2025). Enhancing energy and food access through reduction of income inequality does not jeopardize the achievement of existing climate pledges. Environmental Research Letters, 20(11), 114086.

DATE: November 11th, 2025
AUTHORS: Jon Sampedro et al.
JOURNAL: Environmental Research Letters
TITLE: Enhancing energy and food access through reduction of income inequality does not jeopardize the achievement of existing climate pledges
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

Reducing within-region income inequality is a global priority that must be urgently addressed to promote human development and enhance global access to energy and food. This could lead to higher energy-related emissions by lower-income consumers, potentially creating some conflicts with climate change mitigation objectives. Using an enhanced version of the Global Change Analysis Model, we simulate reductions of within-region income inequality that allow for narrowing differences in energy and food demand across deciles by 2050 in a Paris-compliant world. The energy demand increase by lower-income consumers is greater than the decline in demand by wealthier and more satiated income groups, leading to an overall rise in total demand. Nevertheless, the projected higher energy demand in the proposed more egalitarian societies only slightly increases the regional carbon prices and mitigation costs associated with the emission targets, therefore posing minimal impact on the achievement of the existing portfolio of climate pledges.

LINKS: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae17db
SYNERGIES: IAM COMPACT
TAGS:

Lamboll, R., Al Khourdajie, A., & Pelz, S. (2025). How stocks judge COPs: market impacts of climate conferences. Environmental Research Letters, 20(11), 114082.

DATE: November 6th, 2025
AUTHORS: Robin Lamboll | Alaa Al Khourdajie | Setu Pelz
JOURNAL: Environmental Research Letters
TITLE: How stocks judge COPs: market impacts of climate conferences
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

International efforts to combat climate change almost inevitably entail relative earnings reductions for fossil fuel companies, and gains by renewable companies. This study investigates the relationship between climate change conference of the parties (COP) meetings and the stock market performance of selected publicly listed companies. Specifically, we compare the price formation of fossil fuel companies, ethically-rated (‘green’) companies and renewable energy companies during international climate negotiations, compared to the periods around them. We investigate changes in market behaviour during COPs using two different statistical approaches to assess both whole of the period and daily effects. Both methods find distinct increases in the values of stocks with high green ratings, but no changes in stocks of renewable companies and weaker and more statistically inconsistent decreases in the values of fossil fuel companies. No consistent results are found for variability measurements, other than general market variability increases during COPs. We show that, by contrast, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meetings produce very strong increases in the stock values and variabilities of fossil fuel companies, and fairly strong decreases in the value of renewables companies, showing that detectable changes during predictable events are generally plausible. We conclude that market behaviour so far appears to favour companies with lower environmental impact during COPs but does not convincingly shift company price formation in line with the necessary green transition.

LINKS: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae15a6
SYNERGIES: IAM COMPACT
TAGS:

Keppo, I., Al Khourdajie, A., Gardumi, F., Holtz, G., Nikas, A., Xexakis, G., … & Zamanipour, B. (2026). Model linking for low-carbon transitions: Technical and conceptual challenges and best practices. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 226, 116384.

DATE: October 10th, 2025
AUTHORS: Ilkka Keppo et al.
JOURNAL: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
TITLE: Model linking for low-carbon transitions: Technical and conceptual challenges and best practices
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

Linking existing models to extend energy system and integrated assessment analysis is an increasingly common practice. Despite this, and unlike in the field of environmental and earth sciences, little attention has so far been paid to the details of it, to the trade-offs involved and the way in which the model linking affects the interpretation of the outcomes of the interlinked model system. Our aim in this paper is to first focus on a set of key technical and methodological problems that are common in model linking and suggest how these could be approached in different model linking contexts. We then further explore how model linking may affect the nature of the knowledge produced, and how this should be considered in the model linking process. Reflecting our literature driven assessment of the issues and possible solutions, we compile “a check list” to assist in the process of decision making for model linking.

LINKS: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2025.116384
SYNERGIES: IAM COMPACT
TAGS:

Sampedro, J., Rodés-Bachs, C., Smith, S. J., Tomás, M., Urrutia, I., & Van de Ven, D. J. (2025). rhap: A tool to analyze health impacts attributable to household air pollution. Journal of Open Source Software, 10(114), 8091.

DATE: October 10th, 2025
AUTHORS: Jon Sampedro et al.
JOURNAL: Journal of Open Source Software
TITLE: rhap: A tool to analyze health impacts attributable to household air pollution
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

Recent evidence highlights household air pollution as a significant health risk, particularly in the Global South. However, its impacts are frequently overlooked in the integrated assessment models widely used for global scenario analyses. Alternative scenarios with diverse socioeconomic pathways or climate policies could reshape access to affordable clean energy, particularly for low-income groups, directly impacting household air pollution.
rhap is an R package developed to estimate health impacts attributable to household air pollution (HAP) under alternative scenarios simulated using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). These impacts are derived using an econometric model that links health outcomes from HAP to various air pollutant emissions and socioeconomic variables, all of which can be extracted from scenario-specific GCAM outputs. Figure 1 provides an overview of the rhap package structure.

LINKS: https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.08091
SYNERGIES: IAM COMPACT
TAGS:

Sognnaes, I., & Peters, G. P. (2025). Influence of individual models and studies on quantitative mitigation findings in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. Nature Communications, 16(1), 8343.

DATE: October 2nd, 2025
AUTHORS: Ida Sognnaes | Glen Peters
JOURNAL: Nature Communications
TITLE: Influence of individual models and studies on quantitative mitigation findings in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

Quantitative mitigation findings based on emissions scenarios submitted to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) play an authoritative role in climate policy and decision making. We analyse the impact of the uneven representation of models and modelling studies in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) on statistical values that are used to present quantitative mitigation findings. We find that several key AR6 findings are influenced considerably by the model with the most scenarios, including emissions reductions by 2030 and the decline in fossil fuels consistent with 1.5 °C, and we find that the year of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions is influenced considerably by both the model and the study with the most scenarios. We find that weighting by model- or study does not provide a straightforward solution and discuss three issues related to the use of database statistics to present emissions scenarios findings. Informed by the purpose of the IPCC and the kinds of insights that can be obtained from emissions scenarios, we suggest improvements to the assessment of emissions scenarios.

LINKS: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64091-w
SYNERGIES: IAM COMPACT
TAGS:

Buck, H. J., Al Khourdajie, A., Asayama, S., & Geden, O. (2025). Four scenarios for an IPCC navigating Artificial Intelligence. Research Division EU/Europe, Working Paper Nr. 08/2025, September 2025 (Working paper).

DATE: September 30th, 2025
AUTHORS: Holly Jean Buck et al.
JOURNAL: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik - Research Division EU/Europe
TITLE: Four scenarios for an IPCC navigating Artificial Intelligence
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

During the first six assessment cycles of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools were not widely available. This is rapidly changing. The IPCC will need to make choices about how to use artificial intelligencepowered applications in three areas: literature identification, literature assessment, and communicating the contents of the report. These are not merely technical decisions, but socio-political challenges, as the IPCC is not just about synthesizing literature or reportwriting but has a social function of creating a shared basis of reality for addressing climate change. To explore these challenges, this paper describes four scenarios of potential AI development — futures that see the rapid adoption of AI agents, societal perception of AI as more reliable than humans, a precautionary approach to AI from scientific communities, and public backlash to AI in general. Each of these futures present particular challenges and opportunities for the IPCC as an institution, authors of the report, and science and society. However, if the IPCC can navigate social challenges such as the intersection of AI and inclusivity and societal polarization around AI, there is an opportunity for the institution to serve as a model and learning opportunity for other institutions grappling with how to do scientific assessment in a world with generative AI.

LINKS: https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/four-scenarios-for-an-ipcc-navigating-artificial-intelligence
SYNERGIES: IAM COMPACT
TAGS:

Al Khourdajie, A., Gambhir, A., Keppo, I., Frilingou, N., Mittal, S., van de Ven, D. J., … & Nikas, A. (2025). Navigating the unexpected: The impact of disruptive events on mitigation scenarios (Preprint).

DATE: August 28th, 2025
AUTHORS: Alaa Al Khourdajie et al.
JOURNAL: Research Square
TITLE: Navigating the unexpected: The impact of disruptive events on mitigation scenarios
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

Climate mitigation scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) typically assume smooth, predictable transitions, leaving them ill-equipped to assess the impacts of disruptive events. Here we introduce the Disruptive Events-Resilient Pathways (DERP) framework, a methodology that maps mitigation pathways along two dimensions: Mitigation Action Ambition and Resilience to Socioeconomic Impacts. The framework employs narrative-based societal archetypes to systematically explore how different resilience capacities shape mitigation strategies under disruption. Our application to stylised heatwave and technological disruptions reveals that socioeconomic resilience is a precondition for a capital-efficient transition, that a myopic focus on single technologies creates hidden vulnerabilities by delaying structural change, and that a diversified, resilient strategy can hedge against these risks at little to no additional cost. The DERP framework is therefore a valuable diagnostic tool, advancing scenario analysis to a new frontier by considering long-term transition dynamics alongside the resilience required to navigate disruptions.

LINKS: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7427967/v1
SYNERGIES: IAM COMPACT
TAGS:

Zisarou, E., Fragkos, P., Van De Ven, D. J., Mittal, S., Frilingou, N., Rodés-Bachs, C., … & Nikas, A. (2025). A window of (missed) opportunity? A comprehensive stocktake and energy-system impact assessment of global COVID-19 recovery packages. Energy Research & Social Science, 127, 104216.

DATE: July 11th, 2025
AUTHORS: Eleftheria Zisarou et al.
JOURNAL: Energy Research & Social Science
TITLE: A window of (missed) opportunity? A comprehensive stocktake and energy-system impact assessment of global COVID-19 recovery packages
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

COVID-19 reshaped global economic priorities at the time, with recovery packages offering unprecedented fiscal stimuli aimed at revitalising economies from the impacts of the pandemic and associated policy responses—including lockdowns. While these packages were quickly framed as an opportunity for aligning socioeconomic recovery spending with near- and longer-term climate goals, early assessments of their decarbonisation footprint were constrained by and/or oriented towards optimistic interpretations of the limited information available then. We examine the potential of recovery packages to bridge the medium- and long-term climate ambition gap towards meeting the Paris Agreement goals. To enable such a comprehensive assessment, we first develop an open-access database of global green recovery measures. Second, we explicitly translate these measures as inputs into three Integrated Assessment Models, to assess their implications for energy systems, emissions, and technology development globally. Third, we quantify the missed opportunity in global recovery spending in terms of accelerating the clean energy transition, by exploring a theoretical reallocation of funding from energy affordability measures towards green technologies. Our results suggest that, while the actual synthesis of global recovery funding may not be sufficient to boost climate efforts towards meeting the Paris climate goals with sustained effects post-2030, redirecting part of the funds to low-carbon technologies could accelerate decarbonisation and electrification trends in some sectors. Whether or not the global COVID-19 recovery portfolio is adjusted to better support transition goals, recovery funds alone cannot guarantee a comprehensive and effective transition; this requires complementary systemic reforms, targeted sectoral strategies, and international collaboration.

LINKS: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2025.104216
SYNERGIES: IAM COMPACT
TAGS:

Rodés-Bachs, C., Sampedro, J., Frilingou, N., Gardumi, F., & Giudice, C. L. (2025). Open science practices in Integrated Assessment Models. Open Research Europe, 5, 12.

DATE: June 16th, 2025
AUTHORS: Clàudia Rodés-Bachs at al.
JOURNAL: Open Research Europe
TITLE: Open Science Practices in Integrated Assessment Models
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

Open science emphasizes the free and accessible dissemination of scholarly outputs to a wide audience, including scientists, stakeholders, and the general public. Its core principle is the open sharing of knowledge to enable reuse, replication, and uphold research integrity. Using insights from a survey designed to explore the open science practices within integrated assessment modeling (IAM) teams, as well as the challenges and barriers they face, we propose an open science protocol tailored specifically to the needs of IAMs. The proposed protocol improves the transparency, accessibility, reliability, reusability, and interoperability of IAM models and results. Grounded in the findability, accessibility, interoperability, and reusability (FAIR) and transparency, responsibility, user focus, sustainability, and technology (TRUST) principles, it supports the transformation of models’ outputs into real-world applications. By fostering enhanced trust and engagement from policymakers, this protocol supports the broader adoption of open science in IAMs. It is complemented by a checklist and includes recommendations for open-source platforms and tools, simplifying workflows and minimizing the need for specialized expertise.

LINKS: https://doi.org/10.12688/openreseurope.18824.2
SYNERGIES: IAM COMPACT
TAGS:

van de Ven, D. J., Mittal, S., Nikas, A., Xexakis, G., Gambhir, A., Hermwille, L., … & Peters, G. P. (2025). Energy and socioeconomic system transformation through a decade of IPCC-assessed scenarios. Nature Climate Change, 15(2), 218-226.

DATE: January 3rd, 2025
AUTHORS: Dirk-Jan van de Ven
JOURNAL: Nature Climate Change
TITLE: Energy and socioeconomic system transformation through a decade of IPCC-assessed scenarios
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

Charting future emissions pathways is a central tenet of IPCC assessment reports (AR), yet it is unclear how underlying drivers (including around policy and technology) have influenced the evolution of emissions pathways. Here we compare scenarios in AR5 and AR6 and find that scenarios without specific climate policies enforced have shifted lower in each scenario generation, owing to falling low-carbon technology costs and reduced expectations for economic growth, reducing fossil-fuel shares in energy and industry. Mitigation pathways consistent with 1.5–2 °C have seen increasing electrification rates and higher shares of variable renewables in electricity in more recent scenario generations, implying reduced reliance on coal, nuclear, bioenergy and carbon capture and storage, reflecting changing costs. Despite the shrinking carbon budget due to insufficient recent climate action, mitigation costs have not increased given more optimistic low-carbon technology cost projections. Moving forward, scenario producers must continually recalibrate to keep abreast of technology, policy and societal developments to remain policy relevant.

LINKS: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02198-6
SYNERGIES: NDC ASPECTS
TAGS:

Calcaterra, M., Aleluia Reis, L., Fragkos, P., Briera, T., de Boer, H. S., Egli, F., … & Tavoni, M. (2024). Reducing the cost of capital to finance the energy transition in developing countries. Nature Energy, 1-11.

DATE: September 27th, 2024
AUTHORS: Matteo Calcaterra et al.
JOURNAL: Nature Energy
TITLE: Reducing the cost of capital to finance the energy transition in developing countries
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

Climate stabilization requires the mobilization of substantial investments in low- and zero-carbon technologies, especially in emerging and developing economies. However, access to stable and affordable finance varies dramatically across countries. Models used to evaluate the energy transition do not differentiate regional financing costs and therefore cannot study risk-sharing mechanisms for renewable electricity generation. In this study, we incorporated the empirically estimated cost of capital differentiated by country and technology into an ensemble of five climate–energy–economy models. We quantified the additional financing cost of decarbonization borne by developing regions and explored policies of risk premium convergence across countries. We found that alleviating financial constraints benefits both climate and equity as a result of more renewable and affordable energy in the developing world. This highlights the importance of fair finance for energy availability, affordability and sustainability, as well as the need to include financial considerations in model-based assessments.

LINKS: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-024-01606-7
SYNERGIES: PRISMA
TAGS:

Nikas, A. (2024). Projecting progress in sustainable development goals vis-à-vis climate action in climate-economy models. PLOS Clim 3(7): e0000449.

DATE: July 16th, 2024
AUTHORS: Alexandros Nikas
JOURNAL: PLOS Climate
TITLE: Projecting progress in sustainable development goals vis-à-vis climate action in climate-economy models
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

This piece discusses six ways, in which the capacity to evaluate progress in SDGs vis-à-vis efforts to mitigate climate change using IAMs is currently being enhanced to offer robust and actionable policy prescriptions that may place climate policy in a holistic sustainable development context.

LINKS: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000449
SYNERGIES: IAM COMPACT
TAGS:

Sampedro, J., Van de Ven, D. J., Horowitz, R., Rodés-Bachs, C., Frilingou, N., Nikas, A., … & Yarlagadda, B. (2024). Energy system analysis of cutting off Russian gas supply to the European Union. Energy Strategy Reviews, 54, 101450.

DATE: June 7th, 2024
AUTHORS: Jon Sampedro et al.
JOURNAL: Energy Strategy Reviews
TITLE: Energy system analysis of cutting off Russian gas supply to the European Union
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

The reduction of the EU’s pipeline gas imports from Russia because of the Russian war against Ukraine has had severe economy-wide implications for the bloc. Using a multisector integrated assessment model (GCAM), we find that a potential complete cut-off of Russian pipeline gas exports to the EU unevenly impacts the energy mix and gas prices across subregions within the EU, depending on their access to alternative gas pipelines and liquefied natural gas infrastructure. The restrictions also affect global gas infrastructure capacity additions, asset stranding, and trade dynamics. Our results show that the Fit-for-55 policy framework already improves the EU’s resilience against a cut-off of Russian pipeline gas, while additional improvements in energy efficiency and renewable targets could further soften impacts.

LINKS: doi: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101450
SYNERGIES: IAM COMPACT
TAGS:

Joshi, S., Zakeri, B., Mittal, S., Mastrucci, A., Holloway, P., Krey, V., … & Glynn, J. (2024). Global high-resolution growth projections dataset for rooftop area consistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways, 2020–2050. Scientific Data, 11(1), 563.

DATE: May 30th, 2024
AUTHORS: Siddharth Joshi et al.
JOURNAL: Scientific Data
TITLE: Global high-resolution growth projections dataset for rooftop area consistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways, 2020–2050
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

Assessment of current and future growth in the global rooftop area is important for understanding and planning for a robust and sustainable decentralised energy system. These estimates are also important for urban planning studies and designing sustainable cities thereby forwarding the ethos of the Sustainable Development Goals 7 (clean energy), 11 (sustainable cities), 13 (climate action) and 15 (life on land). Here, we develop a machine learning framework that trains on big data containing ~700 million open-source building footprints, global land cover, road, and population datasets to generate globally harmonised estimates of growth in rooftop area for five different future growth narratives covered by Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. The dataset provides estimates for ~3.5 million fishnet tiles of 1/8 degree spatial resolution with data on gross rooftop area for five growth narratives covering years 2020–2050 in decadal time steps. This single harmonised global dataset can be used for climate change, energy transition, biodiversity, urban planning, and disaster risk management studies covering continental to conurbation geospatial levels.

LINKS: doi: 10.1038/s41597-024-03378-x
SYNERGIES: CircEUlar
TAGS:

Moreno, J., Campagnolo, L., Boitier, B., Nikas, A., Koasidis, K., Gambhir, A., … & Vielle, M. (2024). The impacts of decarbonization pathways on Sustainable Development Goals in the European Union. Communications Earth & Environment, 5(1), 136.

DATE: March 16th, 2024
AUTHORS: Jorge Moreno et al.
JOURNAL: Communications Earth & Environment
TITLE: The impacts of decarbonization pathways on Sustainable Development Goals in the European Union
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

Climate action to achieve the Paris Agreement should respect the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Here, we use an integrated assessment modelling framework comprising nine climate policy models and quantify the impacts of decarbonisation pathways on Sustainable Development Goals in the European Union at regional and national levels. We show that scenario-consistent assumptions of future socio-economic trends and current climate policies would improve energy- and carbon-related aspects of sustainability and reduce inequalities. Ambitious net-zero emissions pathways would further improve health and agricultural productivity. Furthermore, countries currently lagging in achieving sustainable development goals would see the greatest benefits from ambitious climate action. Negative socio-economic impacts from climate action on poverty, hunger, and economic growth will require specific corrective policies. While our analysis does not quantify the negative effects of less ambitious climate policy, it demonstrates where co-benefits and trade-offs of greenhouse gas mitigation and sustainable development agenda exist and can guide policy formulation.

LINKS: doi: 10.1038/s43247-024-01309-7
SYNERGIES: IAM COMPACT
TAGS:

McGookin, C., Süsser, D., Xexakis, G., Trutnevyte, E., McDowall, W., Nikas, A., Koasidis, K., Few, S., Andersen, P. D., Demski, C., Fortes, P., Simoes, S. G., Bishop, C., Rogan, F., & Ó Gallachóir, B. (2024). Advancing participatory energy systems modelling. Energy Strategy Reviews, 52, 101319.

DATE: February 2nd, 2024
AUTHORS: Connor McGookin et al.
JOURNAL: Energy Strategy Reviews
TITLE: Advancing participatory energy systems modelling
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

Energy system models are important tools to guide our understanding of current and future carbon dioxide emissions as well as to inform strategies for emissions reduction. These models offer a vital evidence base that increasingly underpins energy and climate policies in many countries. In light of this important role in policy formation, there is growing interest in, and demands for, energy modellers to integrate more diverse perspectives on possible and preferred futures into the modelling process. The main purpose of this is to ensure that the resultant policy decisions are both fairer and better reflect people’s concerns and preferences. However, while there has been a focus in the literature on efforts to bring societal dimensions into modelling tools, there remains a limited number of examples of well-structured participatory energy systems modelling processes and no available how-to guidance. This paper addresses this gap by providing good practice guidance for integrating stakeholder and public involvement in energy systems modelling based on the reflections of a diverse range of experts from this emergent field. The framework outlined in this paper offers multiple entry points for modellers to incorporate participatory elements either throughout the process or in individual stages. Recognising the messiness of both fields (energy systems modelling and participatory research), the good practice principles are not comprehensive or set in stone, but rather pose important questions to steer this process. Finally, the reflections on key issues provide a summary of the crucial challenges and important areas for future research in this critical field.

LINKS: doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2024.101319
SYNERGIES: ENCLUDE
TAGS:

Nikas, A., Frilingou, N., Heussaff, C., Fragkos, P., Mittal, S., Sampedro, J., Giarola, S., Sasse, J.-P., Rinaldi, L., Doukas, H., Gambhir, A., Giannousakis, A., Golinucci, N., Koasidis, K., Rocco, M. V., Trutnevyte, E., Xexakis, G., Zachmann, G., Zisarou, E., … van de Ven, D.-J. (2024). Three different directions in which the European Union could replace Russian natural gas. Energy, 290, 130254.

DATE: January 4th, 2024
AUTHORS: Alexandros Nikas at al.
JOURNAL: Energy
TITLE: Three different directions in which the European Union could replace Russian natural gas
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fuelled an energy crisis, which considerably impacted Europe given its heavy reliance on Russian natural gas imports. This study uses an ensemble of four global integrated assessment models, which are further soft-linked to two sectoral models, and explores the synergies and trade-offs among three approaches to living without Russian gas in Europe: (a) replacing with other gas imports, (b) boosting domestic energy production, and (c) reducing demand and accelerating energy efficiency. We find that substituting Russian gas from other trade partners would miss an opportunity to accelerate decarbonisation in end-use sectors while risking further fossil-fuel lock-ins, despite featuring the lowest gas price spikes and potentially reducing heating costs for end-users in the near term. Boosting domestic, primarily renewable, energy production on the other hand would instead require considerable investments, potentially burdening consumers. Energy demand reductions, however, could offer considerable space for further emissions cuts at the lowest power-sector investment costs; nonetheless, an energy efficiency-driven strategy would also risk relocation of energy-intensive industries, an aspect of increasing relevance to EU policymakers.

LINKS: doi: 10.1016/J.ENERGY.2024.130254
SYNERGIES: IAM COMPACT
TAGS:

Nikas, A., Gambhir, A., & Boitier, B. (2023). Promoting sustainable transitions across the globe requires scenario co-creation with key stakeholders. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition, 100076 (Editorial).

DATE: December 27th, 2023
AUTHORS: Alexandros Nikas | Ajay Gambhir | Baptiste Boitier
JOURNAL: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition
TITLE: Promoting sustainable transitions across the globe requires scenario co-creation with key stakeholders
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

The Paris Agreement rests on individual countries and regions identifying stretching but feasible mitigation pathways. These must be acceptable and achievable in the eyes of a range of stakeholders in those countries or regions, including those from civil society, governments, and businesses. This Special Issue explores a range of feasible yet ambitious greenhouse gas emissions reduction pathways in a diversity of regions/countries of the world, in principle compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change. Each of these pathways have been developed using energy system models or whole-economy models, in most cases using mitigation scenarios co-created with a range of policy, civil society, academic, and business stakeholders.

LINKS: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rset.2023.100076
SYNERGIES: PARIS REINFORCE
TAGS:

Boitier, B., Nikas, A., Gambhir, A., Koasidis, K., Elia, A., Al-Dabbas, K., Şirin, A., Campagnolo, L., Chiodi, A., Delpiazzo, E., Doukas, H., Fougeyrollas, A., Gargiulo, M., Le Mouël, P., Felix, N., Perdana, S., van de Ven, D.-J., Vielle, M., Zagamé, P., & Shivika, M. (2023). A multi-model analysis of the EU’s path to net zero. Joule. 

DATE: December 20th, 2023
AUTHORS: Baptiste Boitier et al.
JOURNAL: Joule
TITLE: A multi-model analysis of the EU’s path to net zero
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

The EU has committed to becoming a net-zero economy by 2050, with many member states having integrated this goal into national strategies. However, the bloc’s path toward achieving these targets remains unclear. We use five whole-system climate-economy models and two sectoral models to explore how the EU can keep net zero within reach by mid-century, offering insights into intermediate milestones and implications at sectoral and national levels. Our results indicate that a 62% emissions reduction in the Emissions Trading System and 40% in the Effort Sharing Regulation, compared with 2005 levels, are in line with cost-optimal paths toward the bloc’s 55% emissions cuts target by 2030. Bridging the gap with net zero in 2050 entails near-complete decarbonization of ETS, total decarbonization of electricity, and complete phaseout of unabated coal power by 2040, as well as rapid scale-up of negative emissions technologies and an 80% diffusion of renewables in the EU electricity mix by 2050.

LINKS: doi: 10.1016/j.joule.2023.11.002
SYNERGIES: PARIS REINFORCE
TAGS:

Perdana, S. P., Vielle, M., & Diniz-Oliveira, T. (2023). The EU carbon border adjustment mechanism: implications on Brazilian energy intensive industries. Climate Policy

DATE: October 10th, 2023
AUTHORS: Diamantis Koutsandreas et al.
JOURNAL: Energy Strategy Reviews
TITLE: A multicriteria modeling approach for evaluating power generation scenarios under uncertainty: The case of green hydrogen in Greece
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

Clean energy technological innovations are widely acknowledged as a prerequisite to achieving ambitious long-term energy and climate targets. However, the optimal speed of their adoption has been parsimoniously studied in the literature. This study seeks to identify the optimal intensity of moving to a green hydrogen electricity sector in Greece, using the OSeMOSYS energy modeling framework. Green hydrogen policies are evaluated, first, on the basis of their robustness against uncertainty and, afterwards, against conflicting performance criteria and for different decision-making profiles towards risk, by applying the VIKOR and TOPSIS multi-criteria decision aid methods. Although our analysis focuses exclusively on the power sector and compares different rates of hydrogen penetration compared to a business-as-usual case without considering other game-changing innovations (such as other types of storage or carbon capture and storage), we find that a national transition to a green hydrogen economy can support Greece in potentially cutting at least 16 MtCO₂ while stimulating investments of EUR 10–13 bn. over 2030–2050.

LINKS: doi: 10.1016/j.esr.2023.101233
SYNERGIES: PARIS REINFORCE
TAGS:

Bailie, A., Pied, M., Vaillancourt, K., Bahn, O., Koasidis, K., Gambhir, A., … & Nikas, A. (2023). Co-creating Canada’s path to net-zero: a stakeholder-driven modelling analysis. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition, 4, 100061.

DATE: August 1st, 2023
AUTHORS: Alison Bailie | Marie Pied | Kathleen Vaillancourt | Olivier Bahn | Konstantinos Koasidis | Ajay Gambhir | Jakob Wachsmuth | Philine Warnke | Ben McWilliams | Haris Doukas | Alexandros Nikas
JOURNAL: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition
TITLE: Co-creating Canada's path to net-zero: a stakeholder-driven modelling analysis
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

Canada has pledged ambitious emission targets, aiming to achieve a reduction of at least 40–45% below 2005 levels by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050. Being amongst the major economies with high dependence on fossil fuels, however, this path is far from straightforward. This research employs NATEM, a TIMES-based regional energy system model for North America with explicit representation of Canada, as well as knowledge produced and shared by stakeholders during a targeted workshop dedicated to identifying decarbonisation bottlenecks, to compare the paths to net zero on the basis of whether stakeholder perceptions are considered or not. We find that the path to net-zero is technically feasible but critically entails the use of negative emissions technologies, like (bioenergy with) carbon capture and storage (CCS) and direct air capture, in addition to the large-scale deployment of a large range of mitigation options already available today. Based on the feedback received from the stakeholders, around both the use of CCS-based technologies and the potential of demand-side measures such as modal shifts in transportation and better urban planning, we impose a set of additional conditions and restrictions. We find that the co-created net-zero pathway is also technically feasible while relying less on technologies that may trigger bottlenecks prioritised by the stakeholders; notably, despite yielding a similar emissions trajectory, it entails significantly different sectoral and technological configurations to the non-co-created net-zero scenario, requiring an acceleration of near-term abatement measures, mainly through electrification and quicker rollout of renewable and other clean energy technologies.

LINKS: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667095X2300017X
SYNERGIES: PARIS REINFORCE
TAGS: clean energy technologies

Koutsellis, T., Xexakis, G., Koasidis, K., Frilingou, N., Karamaneas, A., Nikas, A., & Doukas, H. (2023). In-Cognitive: A web-based Python application for fuzzy cognitive map design, simulation, and uncertainty analysis based on the Monte Carlo method. SoftwareX, 23, 101513.

DATE: July 1st, 2023
AUTHORS: Themistoklis Koutsellis | Georgios Xexakis | Konstantinos Koasidis | Natasha Frilingou | Anastasios Karamaneas | Alexandros Nikas | Haris Doukas
JOURNAL: SoftwareX
TITLE: In-Cognitive: A web-based Python application for fuzzy cognitive map design, simulation, and uncertainty analysis based on the Monte Carlo method
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping is a semi-quantitative modelling method, widely used for decision support in various domains. However, existing software applications have been criticised over inadequate handling of uncertain information, lack of accessibility, and inability to converge to solutions for all modelled systems. Here we present In-Cognitive, an open-source, web-based application for the creation, visualisation, and simulation of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, ensuring solution convergence and allowing for Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. The application is built in Python and Bokeh and provides an accessible and user-friendly interface to model various systems quickly and reliably and evaluate the robustness of the modelling solutions.

LINKS: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352711023002091
SYNERGIES: PARIS REINFORCE
TAGS: Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

Gambhir A, Nikas A (2023) Seven key principles for assessing emerging low-carbon technological opportunities for climate change mitigation action. PLOS Clim 2(7): e0000235. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000235

DATE: July 10th, 2023
AUTHORS: Ajay Gambhir | Alexandros Nikas
JOURNAL: PLOS Climate
TITLE: Seven key principles for assessing emerging low-carbon technological opportunities for climate change mitigation action
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

It is virtually certain that there is going to be a scramble for technological innovation in the coming years, to ensure that society can operate without today’s vast reliance on fossil fuels and their associated CO₂ emissions, nor the emissions of methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O) from agriculture and waste, and other greenhouse gases from human activities. Indeed, it has been estimated that almost half of the technologies making up a net-zero energy system in 2050 are commercially unavailable.

In this technology gold rush, there will inevitably be both successes and failures. Some new technologies will help tackle both climate change and other energy-related or societal challenges (such as energy security and reliance on volatile fossil fuel prices), whereas others—despite their contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions—will risk augmenting existing concerns or even give rise to new societal issues (such as local environmental pollution, or bottlenecks and disruptions to communities affected by extraction of energy transition-critical materials and over-reliance on brittle international mineral supply-chains with the associated geo-political tensions that could result)

Furthermore, technology development will not occur in isolation of broader infrastructures (such as roads and city designs, electric vehicle charging networks, district heating, and cooling networks, or hydrogen pipelines). Still, rather technologies will be central “artefacts” within a system of physical, regulatory, and political innovation systems. The success or failure of such systems will depend on multiple actors (including researchers, businesses, investors, governments, and consumers) and factors (regulation, policy, capital availability, information, social legitimacy for new technologies, etc.) as well as the efficacy of their interactions.

LINKS: https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000235
SYNERGIES: IAM COMPACT
TAGS: climate change mitigation

Perdana, S. & Vielle, M. (2023). Carbon border adjustment mechanism in the transition to net-zero emissions: collective implementation and distributional impacts. Environmental Economics & Policy Studies, in press.

DATE: February 18th, 2023
AUTHORS: Sigit Perdana | Marc Vielle
JOURNAL: Environmental Economics and Policy Studies
TITLE: Carbon border adjustment mechanism in the transition to net-zero emissions: collective implementation and distributional impacts
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

As an instrument to minimize carbon leakage, the effects and feasibility of Carbon Border Adjustments Mechanism (CBAM) will depend on multiple design options. While the EU has committed to introducing CBAM as part of its green climate deal, pursuing climate efforts to successfully limit global warming requires a collective implementation involving major emitters China and the US. This paper quantifies the distributional impacts of a joint CBAM implementation of in a climate alliance or a club of the EU, the US, and China. Differing from a myriad of studies that focus on unilateral CBAM, this analysis emphasizes collective implications on leakage, sectoral competitiveness, and welfare by projecting climate neutrality relative to current policies and climate targets. Our findings confirm that coalition reduces leakage, improves production on energy-intensive industries, and increases club’s welfare relative to a non-CBAM and a unilateral implementation. These are in contrast with some unilateral analytical studies, especially for the US. It is further proof of the potential of CBAM as collective instruments to facilitate mitigation and trade competitiveness.

LINKS: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10018-023-00361-5
SYNERGIES: PARIS REINFORCE
TAGS: carbon leakage

Gabriele Cassetti, Alessia Elia, Maurizio Gargiulo, Alessandro Chiodi (2023). Reinforcing the Paris Agreement: Ambitious scenarios for the decarbonisation of the Central Asian and Caspian region. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Transition,3, 100048

DATE: August 1st, 2023
AUTHORS: Gabriele Cassetti | Alessia Elia | Maurizio Gargiulo | Alessandro Chiodi
JOURNAL: Renewable & Sustainable Energy Transition
TITLE: Reinforcing the Paris Agreement: Ambitious scenarios for the decarbonisation of the Central Asian and Caspian region
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

For its abundant fossil resources, the Central Asia and Caspian region plays a strategic role in the energy security of major markets, such as Europe and China. However, this dependence on export, added to a firm reliance on fossil fuels for internal consumption, represents a significant challenge for the decarbonisation of the region. In this paper, we perform an energy scenario analysis of four countries in the region (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan), aiming to investigate how ambitious their regional decarbonisation targets for 2050 are in view of the Paris Agreement. We also develop a net-zero emission pathway to reinforce the regional climate ambition in the long term. As a novelty in the literature, the scenario analysis is co-designed with regional stakeholders through an engagement process that we have carried out from December 2020 to May 2021.The analysis is performed with the TIMES-CAC energy system model. Results show that current regional energy policies are insufficient for achieving ambitious climate targets in the long term (2050 and beyond). The lack of a long-term strategy to decrease the dependence on export increases the influence of importing countries’ energy policies. Even in a decarbonised scenario, the role of China remains significant, while the dependence on the European Union decreases. To limit the pressure from other countries in the energy transition, the region should start implementing a rigorous energy planning process today to fill the “ambition gap” and achieve carbon neutrality in a 40-year horizon.

LINKS: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667095X23000041
SYNERGIES: PARIS REINFORCE
TAGS: net zero emission pathway