Scientists Rule Out a Worst-Case Climate Scenario, But We're Not Off The Hook

When it comes to modeling near-future climate change, scientists have taken their absolute worst-case greenhouse gas emissions scenario off the table, deciding it is “implausible”.

«Verst tenkelig»­-scenario ikke lenger aktuelt

Klimaforskere har nedjustert hva det verst tenkelige scenarioet for global oppvarming vil være. CICERO-forsker Glen Peters mener det er på høy tid, men er avventende til om det nye scenarioet blir mer realistisk.

–

Climate scientists have downgraded what the worst-case scenario for global warming would be. CICERO researcher Glen Peters believes it is high time, but is waiting to see if the new scenario becomes more realistic.

The worst-case climate scenario just got better

Though the worst climate scenario is less likely, significant warming is still in our future

Solar, wind, and EVs have knocked out a doomsday climate scenario

Explosive growth in clean technologies has pushed an old coal-heavy scenario out of the realm of plausibility, according to a recent study. But there’s more work to be done.

En slags gladnyhet: Klimaforskerne skrinlegger det verste «dommedagsscenarioet»

Klimaforskere sløyfer det «verst tenkelige» scenarioet for global oppvarming i sin nyeste rapport og tar selvkritikk. Det får Donald Trump til å hovere, men har han grunn til det?

–

Climate scientists are dropping the “worst case scenario” for global warming in their latest report and taking a self-criticism approach. It’s making Donald Trump cringe, but is he right?

Clarifying A Climate ‘Worst-Case’ Scenario With A Simple Analogy

The United Kingdom and France are currently suffering through a heatwave that would be impressive for the middle of summer. It’s May. A heat dome is the culprit. “It’s the same mechanism that has been affecting India for weeks, with temperatures exceeding 45 degrees Celsius (112 degrees Fahrenheit) in some places, and has led to wildfires in Canada in 2021,” noted France24.com. In my neck of the woods, we’ve experienced one of the worst spring droughts on record and with intermittent extreme bursts of rainfall that shut down major interstates in Atlanta. Yet, a recent discussion within the scientific community has mistakenly created a false narrative for the public. Let’s use a simple analogy to explain the confusion and why climate change is still a major threat to society.

Scientists Kill ‘Doomsday’ Climate Scenario As Washington Sweats The Fallout

Climate scientists are quietly retiring the infamous high-end emissions track that has fueled some of the scariest climate headlines of the past decade. The scenario redesign that will feed CMIP7 and future IPCC reports trims back the most extreme upper edge of projected warming. Researchers are quick to stress that this is a reframing of how risk is presented – not a reprieve from the substantial physical and financial climate risks already locked in.

Why climate deniers are celebrating the wrong victory

There’s a wonderful old saying that you should never make forecasts, especially about the future. Its origins have been obscured by the mists of time, although it probably began as a Danish proverb and came down to us in various formulations from the likes of the great Danish physicist Niels Bohr, Mark Twain and the greatest of recent philosophers — Yogi Berra.

Unfortunately, we’re going to be spending a lot of time in the future, so forecasts become pretty important — particularly when it comes to accelerating problems like climate change. And so, the wonks of the world have been mapping out various scenarios and running enormous computer models on supercomputers, some of which are so complex that they take more than a year to compute.

Running a Half-Marathon Dressed as the Peace Tower. The End of an Extreme Global Warming Scenario. What's the Connection?

It’ll take honesty, cooperation, and basic civility to get climate change under control. An MP’s marathon gag was a good start. But how does that connect to the withdrawal of the RCP 8.5 scenario?

Climate change’s worst-case scenario is officially canceled

What comes next will depend on us.

Trump Was Right About Hyperbolic Climate Models

The exaggerated climate projections collapsed despite being propped up by the media and environmental radicals.

Factcheck: Trump’s false claims about the IPCC and ‘RCP8.5’ climate scenario

Among a flurry of posts on social media last weekend, US president Donald Trump declared “good riddance” to a specific emissions scenario used in global climate projections.

Why the IPCC Seems Poised to Eliminate Its Most Extreme Emissions Scenario

The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change may drop a widely-used future emissions scenario as it develops its seventh climate report. In part due to the dropping cost of renewable energy, this scenario was found to be “implausible” by scientists.

'WRONG!': Trump slams UN after it admits extreme climate change predictions are 'implausible'

Climate change has been touted as an existential threat by politicians, pundits, media, activists, and Hollywood elites who speak their missives down to us from their private planes. But now it turns out it’s basically a non-issue. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has found that the dire projection, known as RCP 8.5, of global climate apocalypse “have become implausible.”

Scientists now say this worst-case climate scenario is 'implausible.' Here's what it means.

A U.N. panel on climate change seems poised to retire RCP 8.5, a scenario in which the world does nothing to curb planet-warming emissions, in its projections.

On the death of RCP8.5

With the release of the new van Vuuren et al 2026 paper on the emissions scenarios that will be used in the upcoming IPCC 7th Assessment Report, the internet has been abuzz with debate over the implications of the formal retirement of the RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 scenario. The president of the United States even weighed in over the weekend in his own unique style, posting that “the United Nations TOP Climate Committee just admitted that its own projections (RCP8.5) were WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!”.

Climate scientists admit doomsday scenario no longer believable

Climate scientists have dropped their most apocalyptic forecasts on global warming after finding they were “implausible”.

Scientists and the media have long quoted from the IPCC’s worst-case scenarios, which foresaw temperatures soaring by up to 5C, massive sea level rises and global crop failures.

Some even predicted it could ultimately bring about extinction events on the scale of the dinosaurs.

But now modellers working for the UN-backed IPCC, which provides climate change information to governments, say the chances of this worst-case scenario actually happening are “negligible”.

Skriftlig spørsmål fra Frøya Skjold Sjursæther (MDG) til energiministeren

Frøya Skjold Sjursæther (MDG): Vil energiministeren ta ansvar for å stanse at Sokkeldirektoratet og regjeringsapparatet omtaler norsk olje- og gassvirksomhet som «forenlig med Parisavtalen», til tross for at påstanden mangler faglig grunnlag, og vil statsråden ta ansvar for å sikre at Sokkeldirektoratet og regjeringsapparatet unngår å gjenta påstander som mangler faglig dekning?

–

Frøya Skjold Sjursæther (MDG): Will the Minister of Energy take responsibility for stopping the Norwegian Continental Shelf Directorate and the government apparatus from referring to Norwegian oil and gas activities as “compatible with the Paris Agreement”, despite the fact that the claim lacks scientific basis, and will the Minister take responsibility for ensuring that the Norwegian Continental Shelf Directorate and the government apparatus avoid repeating claims that lack scientific support?

Beskylder oljedi­rekto­ratet for å spre feilin­forma­sjon om klima

Sokkeldirektoratet hevder at fremtidsscenariene deres for olje- og gassproduksjonen i Norge er i tråd med Paris-målene. Det har de ikke grunnlag for, mener forskere.

–

The Norwegian Continental Shelf Directorate claims that their future scenarios for oil and gas production in Norway are in line with the Paris goals. They have no basis for that, say researchers.

DeBriefed 27 February 2026

We are pleased to share that our research on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the evolution of their embedded democratic principles has been featured in the 27 February 2026 edition of the Carbon Brief newsletter (under the Latest climate research section).

The study, published in npj Climate Action (Nature Portfolio) jointly with Horizon Europe project RETOOL, identifies an underrepresentation of democratic governance principles—such as participation, accountability, and justice—in SSPs by analysing SSP quantitative indicators alongside the democratic governance patterns implied by the SSP storylines. Additionally, the study demonstrates the co-evolution of democracy and climate mitigation as projected in the 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6) scenario database.

These findings highlight opportunities to enhance the SSP framework, including the need to more adequately incorporate political and institutional processes.

You can find the February DeBriefed newsletter here or read the study (open access) here.

Green Growth, Offsets, and Reality: Glen Peters on Climate Myths

Interview with Dr. Glen Peters.

Norsk olje bør ikke kalles Paris-vennlig

Ap og Høyre framstiller norsk olje og gass som innenfor Parisavtalen. Det bør de slutte med.

–

The Labour Party and the Conservative Party present Norwegian oil and gas as being within the Paris Agreement. They should stop doing that.

En omstil­ling i tråd med Paris­av­talen?

Omstillingskommisjonen skal legge grunnlaget for en energiomstilling «i tråd med Norges klimaforpliktelser». Hva kan det bety i praksis?

–

The Transition Commission will lay the foundation for an energy transition “in line with Norway’s climate commitments.” What could that mean in practice?

Et forsvar for MDGs utskjelte omstillingskommisjon

Jo da, en omstillingskommisjon kan være akkurat det klimapolitikken trenger, skriver Maria Berg Reinertsen.

–

Yes, a restructuring commission could be exactly what climate policy needs, writes Maria Berg Reinertsen.

Är Sverige ett föregångsland?

Från regeringshåll betonas att Sverige är ett land som visar att det går att få ökad tillväxt utan att öka växthusgaserna. Ytligt sett verkar det också stämma.

–

The government emphasizes that Sweden is a country that shows that it is possible to achieve increased growth without increasing greenhouse gases. On the surface, this also seems to be true.

A Reckoning with the 1.5°C Goal at COP30

Climate scientist Glen Peters about where we are in terms of achieving Paris Agreement temperature goals, where we need to go and how to get there.

En stille elektrotech-revolution brager igennem verden – og den kommer fra uventet kant

I Etiopien er nye benzinbiler ulovlige. I Pakistan sætter borgere solceller på med hjælp fra Tiktok-videoer. Vi er på vej ind i en elektrotech-revolution, siger analysefirma.

–

In Ethiopia, new gasoline cars are illegal. In Pakistan, citizens are installing solar panels with the help of TikTok videos. We are entering an electrotech revolution, says research firm.

Overshoot: Navigating a world beyond 1.5C

The world missed its goal for tackling climate change. What happens next?

In 2015, the world agreed to limit global heating to 1.5°C. Ten years later, temperatures are spiralling beyond this and climate chaos is wreaking havoc across the globe.

In a major four-part series, host Laurie Laybourn explores how the world ended up here and uncovers the huge misconceptions and the high-tech fantasies that hold us back. And we meet people with the ideas to navigate what comes next, from protesting pensioners to climate negotiators, Pacific islanders to pre-eminent scientists.

Elektrotek-revolusjonen er over oss

Denne ukens fem nyheter: Elektroteknologi danker ut fossiler, ingen ny olje og gass innenfor 1,5°C-målet, dyrere strøm i USA, nytt stort batterilager i UK og Australia med plan for 2035 og netto null.

–

This week’s five news: Electrotechnology is replacing fossil fuels, no new oil and gas within the 1.5°C target, more expensive electricity in the US, new large battery storage in the UK and Australia with plans for 2035 and net zero.

Liebreich: The Pragmatic Climate Reset – Part II: A Provocation

Rumors of the death of the transition have been greatly exaggerated, as I discussed in Part I of this article. In this second part, I want to lay out what a pragmatic reset in climate and energy strategy, one that responds to the current moment in history, might entail

Det foregår en energitransisjon, ikke bare en energiaddisjon

Verdens forbruk av fossil energi har ennå ikke nådd toppen. Men tegnene på at det likevel foregår en omfattende energitransisjon er åpenbare – for de av oss som vil se realitetene i øynene.

–

The world’s consumption of fossil fuels has not yet peaked. But the signs that a comprehensive energy transition is taking place are obvious – to those of us who are willing to face reality.

How the DOE and EPA used and misused my research

Elevating contrarian views while burying the actual science

Why the world cannot quit coal

Ten years after the signing of the Paris climate accord, demand for coal shows no sign of peaking.

Explainer: How human-caused aerosols are ‘masking’ global warming

Human-caused emissions of aerosols – tiny, light‑scattering particles produced mainly by burning fossil fuels – have long acted as an invisible brake on global warming.

The COP28 climate agreement is a step backwards on fossil fuels

In the aftermath of our COP28 side event, Dr. Alaa Al Khourdajie et al. discuss the result of COP28 on fossil fuels, and delve on the ‘Abated’ v ‘unabated’ discussion that draws from the presentation delivered in the side event, stressing that the outcome falls short on the urgency of drastically reducing fossil fuel consumption.