Energy system analysis of cutting off Russian gas supply to the European Union

Energy system analysis of cutting off Russian gas supply to the European Union

DATE: July 7th, 2024
AUTHORS: Sampedro, J. | Van de Ven, D.J. | Horowitz, R. | Rodés-Bachs, C. | Frilingou, N. | Nikas, A. | Binsted, M. | Iyer, G. | Yarlagadda, B.
JOURNAL: Energy Strategy Reviews
TITLE: Energy system analysis of cutting off Russian gas supply to the European Union
SHORT DESCRIPTION:

The reduction of the EU’s pipeline gas imports from Russia because of the Russian war against Ukraine has had severe economy-wide implications for the bloc. Using a multisector integrated assessment model (GCAM), we find that a potential complete cut-off of Russian pipeline gas exports to the EU unevenly impacts the energy mix and gas prices across subregions within the EU, depending on their access to alternative gas pipelines and liquefied natural gas infrastructure. The restrictions also affect global gas infrastructure capacity additions, asset stranding, and trade dynamics. Our results show that the Fit-for-55 policy framework already improves the EU’s resilience against a cut-off of Russian pipeline gas, while additional improvements in energy efficiency and renewable targets could further soften impacts.

JOURNAL LINK: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2024.101450
ZENODO LINK: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2024.101450 | https://zenodo.org/records/10512544
SYNERGIES: IAM COMPACT
Sampedro, J., Van de Ven, D. J., Horowitz, R., Rodés-Bachs, C., Frilingou, N., Nikas, A., ... & Yarlagadda, B. (2024). Energy system analysis of cutting off Russian gas supply to the European Union. Energy Strategy Reviews, 54, 101450.