A multi-model analysis of the EU’s path to net zero

  • 2023

    A multi-model analysis of the EU’s path to net zero

    DATE: November 23rd, 2023
    AUTHORS: Baptiste Boitier | Alexandros Nikas | Ajay Gambhir | Konstantinos Koasidis | Alessia Elia | Khaled Al-Dabbas | Şirin Alibaş | Lorenza Campagnolo | Alessandro Chiodi | Elisa Delpiazzo | Haris Doukas | Arnaud Fougeyrollas | Maurizio Gargiulo | Pierre Le Mouël | Felix Neuner | Sigit Perdana | Dirk-Jan van de Ven | Marc Vielle | Paul Zagamé | Shivika Mittal
    JOURNAL: Joule
    TITLE: A multi-model analysis of the EU’s path to net zero

    The European Union (EU) recently ratcheted its climate ambition to net-zero emissions by 2050, with a milestone of 55% emissions cuts in 2030. This study carries out a model inter-comparison to assess the EU’s path, from “Fit for 55” in 2030 to an intermediate milestone in 2040 and onto net zero in 2050, offering insights at sectoral and member-state levels. Our model results support the bloc’s ambition for its Emissions Trading System and Effort Sharing Regulation sectors while pointing to the need for near-complete decarbonization of electricity by 2040, enabled by considerable deployment of renewables (45%–65% in 2030, to 60%–70% in 2040, and to 75%–90% in 2050 in electricity generation) and carbon capture and storage (0.5–2 GtCO2/year by 2050). We also highlight the trade-offs between supply-side and harder-to-abate sectors, assess the ambition of member states for net zero and timing of coal phaseout, and reflect on the economic implications of investment, technical, and policy needs.

    JOURNAL LINK: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2023.11.002
    ZENODO LINK: https://zenodo.org/records/10213459
    Boitier, B., Nikas, A., Gambhir, A., Koasidis, K., Elia, A., Al-Dabbas, K., ... & Mittal, S. (2023). A multi-model analysis of the EU’s path to net zero. Joule, 7.

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